2016 showing trends have followed the pattern seen in previous years and we predict they will continue to do so.
- Showing traffic in 3Q ’16 was essentially the same as 3Q in each of the prior 4 years. Business as usual.
- Units closed for DSF (detached single family) in the TTM (trailing twelve months, e.g., Oct 2015 – Sept 2016) was down -2% from prior year. That continues a trend of flat to declining sales volume. We think that is due to lack of inventory.
- Prices TTM are +9%. That is also a continuation of a multiple year trend.
- MOI (months of inventory) increased a little, from 1.5 (July) to 1.7. This is a predictable seasonal pattern; Denver always has the most listings in the summer. About this time of the year the buyers are distracted with getting back to school, so volume falls off… but the homes that didn’t sell this summer are still on the market. Usually the 12/31 MOI is the lowest of the year (sellers pull listings off market in advance of the holidays).
- In another continuation of “business as usual”, MOI for the smallest 50% of the homes is still about 0.5 MOI (two weeks); the biggest 10% are 5.0 months. No big change from last quarter or from this time last year. Still an unusually outstanding time to be trade up buyer.
- Since inventory really hasn’t changed much, it’s no surprise that DOM (days on market) has been pretty constant, at under a month. Discounts are also steady.
In a sentence, there is no real change in 2016 showing trends from what we have seen in the fall over the past few years. Full up to date quarterly market trends will be out within the next few weeks! If you don’t have access to our trends book and need one please contact us!